18 February 2012

Along the path to war, déja vu anybody?

The recent sanctions enforced by the EU and the US have been useless to put any sort of pressure on the Iranian regime, having more effect  on the Iranian population themselves. While some countries have continued to trade with Iran, Israel has continued along their lines of threatening rhetoric. However, Obama has warned that sanctions remain on the table, and will become much tougher in the coming months, before any military action will be taken. Yet, the path ahead still remains highly dangerous with threats rising behind the scenes. 

What seems to be ignored throughout the media is that top US military and intelligence officials, confirm that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, and is not building a nuclear weapon. The National Intelligence Estimates from 2011 had no new evidence of any nuclear weapons program in operation. Thus, if Western powers were to attack Iran, this would be a violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Those who have warned of a 'new cold war' in the Middle East if Iran were to create a nuclear weapon risk vastly overestimating and exaggerating the position of Iran. More so, Israel's continued threats and provocative actions are nothing new and reminiscent of reports almost a decade ago, when they again, called for military strikes and action against Iran. 

Today, we simply see the case of dramatised news reports and fiery rhetoric that are a way to justify any steps taken in the future. If we look at the bigger picture, the US is becoming weaker in its positions of influence in the Middle East with the current Arab Springs and new powers taking over previous 'puppet' regimes. Are these actions a way to maintain power in the region? Well, amongst many examples, a) the sanctions which are currently being imposed increase US leverage over oil markets, and b) the 'threat' which is posed by Iran condones more naval forces being deployed in the region. Along the same lines, as Israel become more and more isolated in the region, Obama is under increasing pressure to support an Israeli position. At this time, the Israel factor is highly detrimental within the decision making process.

Whether Iran are on the path to weapons or not, negotiations are the only way to settle the situation peacefully. In order for these to be successful, the international community must also deal with the threat that is evident from Israel. If Iran are to be disarmed of any nuclear capability, steps should be taken to balance powers in order to guarantee a nuclear free zone in the Middle East. 

Obama's decisions remain fundamental in the upcoming weeks. How far is he willing to follow the military path? Surely he doesn't want to make the same mistakes as his predecessor. 

15 January 2012

The Israelis making Aash Reshteh out of diplomacy!

In light of the recent assassination of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, an Iranian nuclear scientist, unsurprising reports have come forward that the attacks were linked to Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency. This is another step forward in the secret war against Iran. Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was part of Israel’s overall campaign to threaten the Iranian government, which clearly they aren’t having any breakthroughs with right about now.

Now, let’s take a step back and look at Israel. Often noted as the most democratic state in the world, it has held Nuclear capability for over thirty years; along with Pakistan, India and North Korea, it remains a non-signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Many argue, including Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan, that Nuclear Israel - with its undeclared level of Nuclear capabilities - poses a major threat to the security of the Middle East.  Israel has continually occupied Palestinian territory, making fundamental human rights violations on Arab men, women and children in Gaza and the West Bank, and ultimately broken many international laws.

In recent news, evidence has surfaced that Israel has been connected to the terrorist group Jundallah, a Sunni group based in Pakistan known to be behind a long line of attacks in Iran and Iraq, including the suicide bombing on a mosque in Zahedan in May 2009 killing 25 Iranian civilians. Israel has reportedly met with a number of people in London as part of covert ‘false-flag’ operations, posing as CIA agents with American passports and extensive amounts of dollars, recruiting them as Jundallah operatives.   

Whilst the CIA claim to have no connection to these operations, emphasising the fact that when approached by Israeli intelligence officers on a number of occasions to conduct joint intelligence-gathering operations regarding Iran, the CIA has not cooperated. However, in 2007 and 2008, it was suggested by ABC News, and The New Yorker that the US government had supported the terrorist group in similar ‘false-flag’ operations.

Nonetheless, these sorts of threatening acts by the Israeli intelligence services jeopardize any sort of agreement between Iran and the Western states over the Nuclear Program. What does Israel hope to gain from these attacks?  

One may argue that this is the very reason why Iran may seek protection of a Nuclear weapon. Look at Iran’s neighbouring countries and see what the invasion and occupation of American troops has led to. Look at the instability of the Middle East and see countries in the midst of revolutionary uprising being supported with one hand of the Western politician, whilst being thieved with the other of their rich oil commodities. Look at Israel, who hide behind their support on Capitol Hill; with thousands of American troops being deployed to the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks.

Hold on Barack, does this not justify rights to Iranian security? 

14 January 2012

Please America, have your drone back, we'll throw in a couple of carpets too!

The war against the Islamic Republic of Iran is well on it's way. Now, this does not necessarily mean armies, guns and tanks - Bush is out the White House - one only has to look at Western news media to see the latest step in the secret war against Iran.

The drone sent into Iranian sovereign airspace by the US in December was what some have called an act of war. The Central Intelligence Agency are well known for using drone operations for strikes in this region. The drone that entered deeply into Iranian airspace posed a huge threat to Iran's national security. Ultimately, the Iranian government were well within their right to call upon international actions to be taken. 

What would the Obama administration have done if such a situation had occurred in US territory we may ask? The response of the Americans would have been hugely more drawn out, with possible calls for further sanctions, the rallying of world leaders, and almost certainly a military retaliation of some sort. These would be essential steps for the Obama administration in response to an attack on their national security.

Where are Iran's fundamental rights to sovereignty? Iran has issued a letter of protest to the United Nations, but how far will this really get them? Some may say that this is a surprisingly low key response to the US actions. Let's not speak too soon though, Mahmood may still have some cards left to play